Disrupting transportation : We
need to think bigger than cars
Connectivity
could dramatically change the commute of the future.
Cities are becoming the switchboards of
the globalized economy, and for many people it’s
exciting to live in them—except for traffic congestion and its emissions.
Banning cars is now a frequently considered response, but this option doesn’t
actually support the development of cities. In fact, there’s a much better
solution: a transportation system that ensures that all its elements—cars,
trains, trams, buses—run as efficiently as possible. Let’s start to think
systemically, not piece by piece.
It’s Monday morning, 8 a.m. A busy week is
starting for millions of workers. But many of them can expect some downtime as
soon as they leave home: the daily traffic jam. The number of hours we all
spend in traffic jams continues to grow objectively and to annoy us
subjectively. London faces acknowledged congestion issues; apparently its
citizens are stuck in their cars for an additional 73 hours per year due to
congestion. But
we all know it’s not just London: being stuck in traffic happens to everyone,
especially those of us who live in those cities that are growing and thriving
the most.
In fact, the problem may get worse. The
number of people living on this planet continues to grow; and precisely because
of the opportunities cities offer, an ever-increasing number of them will move
to urban agglomerations. A case in point: there were 28 megacities in 2014, and
this number is expected to grow to 41 by 2030. Traffic
density and the demands on road infrastructure will increase accordingly,
especially in fast-developing nations. China’s fleet of vehicles, for example,
has grown by a factor of five over the past decade, from more than 30 million
in 2005 to more than 160 million in 2015.3And
one forecast estimates that in 2017 alone, total vehicle sales in the ten
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries will grow 8.1 percent.
In a joint study with Credo, Siemens estimated the loss of gross domestic
product (GDP) in cities worldwide due to their citizens’ unproductive commuting
hours; the estimate ranges from 8 percent of GDP to nearly 30 percent!5
As a result, urban authorities are under
pressure to prevent even more congestion. And that pressure is intensifying. In
Germany, for instance, some cities find themselves forced to consider a ban of
all but the most recent models of diesel-powered cars. At the same time, in Germany
and everywhere else around the world, electric and driverless vehicles are
being discussed.
But let’s be honest: banning cars,
especially in developed countries, is unrealistic. Studies have shown that if
it’s an option, people prefer to travel using their own car.6Alternative
means of transportation, including biking and public transit, should be part of
the transportation future of all countries—but they won’t be a total solution
to the problem. For example, public transport isn’t a viable alternative for
many commuters because they don’t take them the “last mile”: the last stretch
between the public transportation stop and home.
A
better solution
We need a better solution—and luckily,
there is one. It’s disruptive because it requires us to shift our perspective a
bit: let’s stop looking just at cars and how we can reduce their numbers, and
let’s look instead at the entire system, of which cars are just one part. What
if there was a smart infrastructure that connected road, rail, and other modes
of transportation in such a way that all of them worked together to serve the
mobility needs of the modern urban population?
Let me explain in more detail what I mean
by this.
All vehicles—cars, buses, trains, freight
vehicles, and so forth—will communicate with the infrastructure, including
roads, tracks, and traffic lights, using sensors. Vehicle-to-infrastructure
communication will make the city function like a giant computer, with a central
operating system that everything flows into. The information obtained in this
way, after being compiled and analyzed by a central platform, will help us
maintain the flow of and direct traffic intelligently, reduce congestion, and
adapt the infrastructure to meet acute requirements. Smart traffic management
systems have at least three major benefits. They make public transportation
more reliable thanks to traffic prediction; they make it safer because
assistance systems back up human reactions; and they make it more flexible
because pulsing—for example, in subways—can be shortened during peak hours.
They also facilitate intermodal travel, using different means of transportation
in combination, which will help cover the “last mile” mentioned above. Only
this digital interconnectivity can make the electrification and automation of
transportation a practical option and the disruption of transportation a
realistic feature of the urban future.
To some, this description may sound too
futuristic. In fact, it’s not. Technologies that point the way toward this
shift of perspective are already up and running. One example: open, cloud-based
Internet of Things operating systems exist today, and they allow infrastructure
operators to easily connect their assets and perform data analyses without
having to develop or invest in the requisite IT infrastructure. Singapore, for
example, will be piloting MindSphere from Siemens to become a fully integrated
urban ecosystem with a modernized infrastructure, optimized energy management,
and transformed industries.
A related solution has made it possible
for high-speed trains to run between Madrid and Barcelona with 99.98 percent
reliability. It’s called predictive maintenance, and it relies on algorithms
that analyze the data submitted by the trains. The algorithm detects an
anomaly, and a potential malfunction can be detected and prevented before it
even occurs. That the trains between Madrid and Barcelona are now so reliable
isn’t just convenient for travelers, it also means that this rail link can now
compete with air transport: more than 60 percent of passengers now choose to
take the train.7
Yet another tool is the City Performance
Tool Air, which also runs on the Siemens operating system for cities. It uses
proprietary data on more than 70 transportation, building, and energy
technologies to deliver detailed insights into potential CO2 and air-quality
improvements. It also identifies new local jobs that each technology could
create if the users were to implement the suggested measures.
The
commute of the future
Instead of sitting in traffic for an hour
before starting the workday, the commuter of the future may get in her car on
Monday, check the potential routes, and drive in a smooth traffic flow to a
nearby train station, where she walks onto a train that departs just one minute
later, getting her to work in half the time. In fact, the driving may even be
autonomous, guided by a smart infrastructure that tells the car where it can
find the fastest and safest route. Another day, she may drive the whole way in the
same amount of time, guided on a new route by smart traffic lights. Fewer hours
stuck in traffic jams and at public transportation stops means less stress, and
relaxed people are more productive. Fewer hours alone in the car or in
overcrowded buses and trams also means less CO2 emissions and more time with
family and friends.
Governments stand to reap significant
financial rewards when they find solutions to intractable transportation
problems. McKinsey estimates that cities alone could stand to gain up to $1.7
trillion per year in 2025 from applications in the area of transportation,
public health and safety, resource management, and service delivery.8Ultimately,
the goal is to ensure that navigating our streets and rail systems is
convenient and safe—and that our cities remain exciting places to live.
By Roland Busch October
2017
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/disrupting-transportation-we-need-to-think-bigger-than-cars?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1711
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