BOOK SUMMARY 255
Persuadable
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Summary written by: Ingrid Urgolites
“In environments characterized by complexity,
uncertainty, and dynamism, it’s impossible to have all the answers. If you want
to succeed, you must be prepared to change your mind.”
- Persuadable, page 9
Leaders are often expected to conform to the strong
leadership archetype displaying confidence, conviction, consistency, and
persuasiveness. In Persuadable: How Great Leaders Change Their Minds to
Change the World, Al Pittampalli shows how influential leaders achieve
remarkable results by rejecting the traditional archetype. Through example, he
illustrates how persuadability, ability to change their mind when provided with
new evidence, is the hallmark of effective leaders.
As followers, we may reject leaders who freely admit they
do not have all the answers. How do we know where they stand? We may question a
leader that displays humility, who is modest and open to suggestion and willing
to change their mind. However, a leader that second-guesses plans and is
prepared to accept challenges to ideas exposes weaknesses, resulting in better
decisions and better serving those they lead.
Pittampalli was inspired to write Persuadable as
a result of his experience. He wrote Read This Before Our Next Meeting and
received lots of praise and some valuable criticism. He honestly evaluated his
book in consideration of the criticism and made substantial changes as a
result. He updated his ideas and produced a far more compelling plan that
helped leaders do their jobs more efficiently. The changes then became a part
of his updated book. He shares his hard-won knowledge and strategy in Persuadable.
The Golden Egg
Respect Flip-Flopping
"Sometimes the greatest acts of integrity involve
being inconsistent — especially when circumstances change, new information
comes to light, or mistakes have been made. And because the world is changing
fast, now more than ever, leaders need to be big enough to embrace
inconsistency when required."- Persuadable, page 69
Pittampalli references Phillip E. Tetlock’s work which is
discussed in more detail in Superforecasting. Those
forecasters who were able to make the best predictions were those who changed
their mind often. They did not do it haphazardly: they examined the evidence on
a regular basis and developed a more accurate opinion over time. We rarely have
all the facts and the ability to evaluate them accurately from the start. As a
leader ignoring facts as they present themselves may produce an image of
decisive leadership but give disastrous results because the decision followed
an inaccuracy.
Integrity and honesty may be rare in leadership. Perhaps
that is because we distrust leaders who are honest and change their mind when
presented with new evidence. We call it flip-flopping. If we change our belief
because the pursuit of accuracy is more important than any other ideal, it is a
display of integrity, and we should regard it as a strength rather than a
weakness.
Gem #1
Use Bayes Logic to Incrementally Update Beliefs
"However, what’s most important for Persuadables is
the realization that we should be incrementally updating our beliefs with
evidence. If we do, we have a powerful mechanism to develop better and more
accurate beliefs about the world."- Persuadable, page 111
Thomas Bayes was a theologian who had an interest in
theories of probability. He performed a thought experiment where one would
imagine a level surface onto which a ball was rolled. Without looking at the
ball, one would guess its location. Its position could be determined by rolling
new balls and receiving a simple description of where the ball was compared to
the new ball. With every new ball, one could better predict the position of the
ball. Over time Bayesian Analysis was formalized, and Pierre-Simon Laplace
turned Bayes Theorem into a mathematical formula. Using Bayes logic does not
require us to memorize Laplace’s formula. It’s more practical to simplify and
use the Three Strikes Rule.
Bayes Analysis consists of three parts: the prior,
evidence, and posterior. The prior is the original belief. The evidence is the
objective information. When the two are combined it produces an updated belief,
or posterior, which becomes the new prior. The process then repeats. The Three
Strikes Rule simplifies the logic. If you come across evidence that challenges
a view you have confidence in think of it as strike one, more evidence is
strike two, and at strike three you change your opinion. Incrementally updating
our beliefs gives us a more accurate perspective and increases the
effectiveness of our decisions.
Gem #2
Remember to Consider Other Perspectives
"All leaders, and people in power, have the ability
to excel at understanding what the people around them are thinking, accurately
identifying their positions and interests, if they’re willing to make it a priority.
In essence, it’s a choice that leaders can make."- Persuadable, page 148-9
It is natural for us to surround ourselves with
information that supports our perspective. We must choose to seek others views.
To obtain objective information that we were not aware of initially and that
challenges our point of view we must actively solicit the opinion of others,
particularly those who oppose our favored point of view. Even if we objectively
know we should seek out opposing views, it is easy to dismiss the contradictory
information. To avoid this pitfall use a simple, well-proven method for forming
an instant habit, ask, “When and where will I do X.”
Decide when and where you will actively seek an
understanding of a variety of viewpoints. For instance, you choose to listen to
a radio show on your way to work that opposes your views and decide to consider
the alternate view. You ask for the viewpoint of colleagues at lunch. You plan
to read a newspaper column written by a journalist that opposes your opinion. Making
a commitment in advance to seek others perspectives means we will not forget or
miss the opportunity.
We spend lots of time and money investing in our future
success. Success is often elusive because our world is full of complexity and
uncertainty. We invest in our ideas but rarely invest in changing our mind.
Often the way we think determines our success. Learning to understand what
others believe and thoughtfully updating our opinion does not cost extra time
and money, but it may prevent failure. Although we may initially mistrust
flip-floppers, inconsistency is sometimes the highest form of integrity.
Updating our beliefs incrementally gives us a more accurate perspective than
forming an initial opinion and sticking to it. We may initially dismiss information
that opposes our favored view and need to make an active habit of seeking new
perspectives. When we decide to become more flexible and open to criticism, we
become more powerful as leaders.
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