6 PREDICTIONS FOR THE MOST DISRUPTIVE TECH TRENDS
Shaking up the
status quo.
What trends and
technologies threaten to upend established business models and wipe out
slow-to-adapt companies, leading to the next generation of S&P 500 companies
and IPO hopefuls?
You'll find no
shortage of analysts and other experts ready to answer this question—and it's
not just a tech utopian vision of the successful company of the future.
Here are six
seismic shifts, from cutting-edge technology and workplace trends to consumer preferences, that today's
company leaders need to be thinking about before it's too late.
1. 3-D printing's inflection point.
3-D printed guns.
3-D printed vital organs. "We get caught up in the end of the journey
with 3-D printing," says Mike Walker, an analyst at
market research firm Gartner. "The real opportunity isn't the widget. It's
the intellectual property you're creating."
Plans for all
manner of products, parts, and supplies will become available for download,
similar to music files (even suits based on 3-D body scans, as in the image
here). Walker says the real business winners could be the designers who
stand to earn royalties for each download, in the same way the IP owners of
songs and movies do.
The question is:
What designs will be commonly downloaded and printed, not only by consumers but
also by businesses? That's where things get interesting. There are sure to be
plenty of everyday items, but you can't rule out a future in which automakers
download and print out cars and surgeons print plastic medical
models on which they can practice complex procedures.
2. Advertising inside the headphone.
So you might be
wondering why Microsoft spent $2.5 billion to buy the maker of video game
Minecraft.
Here one reason:
They may be envisioning an entirely new and highly effective advertising
opportunity in games like Minecraft, says Forrester Research's James
McQuivey, an analyst who tracks the digital disruption of traditional
businesses. An automaker, for example, could create a Minecraft setting in
which consumers design their own cars (complete with fun added elements, such
as cats or celebrities) or virtually experience cars built by other users.
In a game setting
like this, McQuivey says, advertisers could potentially construct a brand
experience and present it to prospective customers whose game-playing
preferences make them likely sales targets. "Right now, companies go into
these [gaming] environments and put up a billboard," he says. "But
that's not nearly as interesting as getting people to interact."
By interesting, he
means not only effective but transformative: An audience will no longer be a
passive spectator to an advertisement, but an active participant in it.
3. A work perk that'll never be the same.
Researchers at
S&P Capital IQ made waves when they predicted in a recent report that the
common practice of getting health insurance through employers was inevitably
going away.
Why is it
inevitable? Mainly because employers stand to save a whopping $700 billion
between 2016 and 2025 by shifting from employer-paid insurance to simply
providing stipends through which employees can buy their own policies on
independent exchanges made possible by the Affordable Care Act.
There's a big
"if" looming in the Supreme Court decision on the ACA, over which the
high court just heard arguments, but if the justices uphold the law for a
second time, this trend will be analogous to the shift from employer pensions
to 401(k) plans, says Michael G. Thompson, managing director at S&P Capital
IQ.
"The
government will change the rules, and the IRS will back down and allow
stipends," Thompson says. The winners, in his opinion, will be the
companies that figure out how to get a piece of the revenues that these
soon-to-be-emerging health care exchanges are bound to generate
4. The end of recruiting from campuses.
Like health care,
education is an area rife with "bloated, rising costs, incredibly
unchecked by anyone," Forrester's McQuivey says. In response, more current
and future members of the work force are "ridding themselves of the need
to use the current systems," he says. In other words: You don't have
to go to college to prove yourself as a programmer. Instead, you can save
time and money by taking online courses.
And that's just one
industry. Although Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have been around for
more than a decade, they continue to gain momentum as an alternative to the
pricier and more time-consuming coursework of traditional education.
While it's an exaggeration (at least at this point) to say that the
MOOC trend will render obsolete the prestige and connections that come from,
say, earning an MBA the old-fashioned way, there's no question online courses
are already saving time and money for both students and businesses.
Goldman Sachs, for
example, has partnered with MOOC provider Udemy to train and bring on board new
hires. "From the firm's perspective, we can customize content based on
what they already know and measure their progress, as well as the program's
impact," Jason Wingard, Goldman Sachs's chief learning officer, wrote on Inc.com. "And when they finally do arrive on
campus for orientation, participants are better prepared and thus start on a
more level playing field."
5. When Walmart's cart is left empty.
In their new
book, Retail Revolution: Will Your Brick-and-Mortar Store Survive?,
Harvard Business School faculty members Rajiv Lal and José Alvarez and former
HBS research associate Dan Greenberg forecast hard times for
one-size-fits-all brick-and-mortar retailers, including Walmart Stores.
"Walmart is now buffeted by three sources of competition," says
Lal. Those three are e-commerce companies, from Amazon down to
one-product specialists; increasingly efficient and profitable supermarkets; and
the growth of dollar stores. "Their business model used to work, but now
it's under stress," Lal says of Walmart.
That means the
model for smaller brick-and-mortar retailers is in trouble as well. While
analysts have predicted a brick-and-mortar apocalypse before, Lal and his co-authors
say that today's online threat is different and more lethal than anything
traditional retailers have faced in the past.
6. A consumer with a new idea of comfort.
There are two
habits in particular that smart companies are baking into their business
models. First, there's the idea that Millennials conduct online research before
buying. This highlights the importance of credible customer testimonials,
especially those shareable on social media. As an example, David Bell, a
professor of marketing at Wharton, cites the marketing efforts of Casper, a New
York City-based manufacturer and online mattress retailer. Casper's product
reviews are sortable by categories, such as whether you're a side sleeper and
whether you sleep with a pet. "You can go onto their site, find a review
by someone who's essentially a clone of your own sleeping type, and that can
give you some confidence as a buyer," Bell says.
Second, and maybe
because Millennials trust so much in online information, they tend not to care
as much about trying the physical product before buying it. Increasingly,
consumers can buy a product first and easily return it if they dislike it.
Casper and its competitors in the direct-to-consumer mattress space offer
generous return policies with long trial periods.
Harvard Business
School's Lal says he has seen this trend play out both in his research and with
his own children, who are in their 20s. "When they think about shopping,
they think about the internet," he says. "It's the first place they
go to. It doesn't matter if it's shoes or a coat. These are categories I
would've told them, 'Try it out, see how it looks, how it feels.'
Their response is, 'We'll buy three and return two of them.'"
http://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/seismic-shifts-change-business.htm
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