HOW TO ACTUALLY BUY A HOUSE
Buying a house is a
difficult investment decision to make, says Dhirendra Kumar.
Of all the big investments you are likely to make, none is so
fraught with uncertainty as that of buying a house. For once, it is not the
fault of the saver. The blame lies squarely with the way the real estate
industry has evolved over the last decade or two. The very idea that a house is
an investment is a product of the hype that has evolved over this period.
Before that, except for a handful who had vast amounts of cash, houses were not
financial investments. Of the small number of Indians who were prosperous
enough to actually buy a house, most just bought one in which they lived out
their years and on which their children later litigated.
However, starting around the year 2000, the combination of
dropping interest rates, tax breaks and rapidly increasing disposable incomes
reached a tipping point. This led to the rise of the EMI investor, the small,
leveraged second (and third, and maybe fourth) homebuyer, something that India
hadn't seen before.People took loans to buy houses and sold them two or three
years down the line because prices had risen enough to prepay the loan and
still make an enormous profit. However, the real estate industry rapidly rigged
this phenomena and turned it into a bubble which eventually burst. While that's
a long story and this is not the place for it, today there are a number of people
stuck with unbuilt houses with unpayable EMIs.
None of this is a secret. The only problem is that real estate
cheerleaders--builders, dealers, and the media which is beholden to real estate
advertising revenues--are fully dedicated to convincing you that none of this
is happening or if it is, then a huge revival is just around the corner.
However, you still must try to buy one house. Despite all of the above, real
estate is the only purchase for which it's fine to take a loan.The saving on
rent, the tax break, and the psychological comfort are worth it.
However, you have to ignore the hype and stick to these
principles:
One.
Buy just one house which will actually save you rent. Do not
even think of buying any more for investment.
Two.
And this is the most important rule.Don't stretch yourself. No
matter how much you'd love a fancy house and how beautiful the ads and the
brochures are, the EMI should not be more than one third of your family income.
That's the UPPER limit. If you can get by at a lower level, then please do so.
Basically, don't buy a house of your dreams. I know that the whole thrust of
real estate marketing is this `house of your dreams' concept, but that's a
really bad way to make a sensible choice.
Three.
I hardly need to point out that there's a huge difference
between a house and a promise of a house. Completion of projects is at a
premium today. This is unfortunate, but is a side-effect of the way real estate
developers have gotten away with fraudulent behaviour. Buy something you can
live in, rather than a mere plan and a promise. Look at it another way. Real
estate investments must be evaluated in the normal terms of any
investment--liquidity, safety, transparency, returns and similar parameters.
Most people get confused about this because there is a fundamental difference
between your first house which you live in and property bought purely for
investment. The first house is a need and when you take into account the fact
you can stop paying rent and get a tax break on the EMIs, you'll get a big
financial advantage. A first house may or may not turn out to be an
investment--it doesn't matter.
The myth of real estate being a great investment is mostly due
to mathematical illiteracy about compound growth. Any real estate fan will tell
you how some land or house became 50 or 100 times its value in 4050 years.
Sounds fabulous, but you know, the BSE Sensex has become 300 times its value in
38 years. That's `10 lakh becoming `30 crore. Even 100 times in 50 years--which
is a real estate example someone from Mumbai gave me-is a 9.6% per annum gain.
That's a good return, but not an outstanding one. It's a lot less than stocks.
After that, there is basically no case for real estate as an
investment. The ticket size is huge, liquidity is poor. The entire investment
has to be sold at one go. You may or may not be able to sell when you want
to--in a slump, entire markets disappear for long periods. Pricing may be hard
to discover. Information is anecdotal and hard to verify. The choice is
clear.estment decision to make, says Dhirendra Kumar.
Of all the big investments you are likely to make, none is so
fraught with uncertainty as that of buying a house. For once, it is not the
fault of the saver. The blame lies squarely with the way the real estate
industry has evolved over the last decade or two. The very idea that a house is
an investment is a product of the hype that has evolved over this period.
Before that, except for a handful who had vast amounts of cash, houses were not
financial investments. Of the small number of Indians who were prosperous
enough to actually buy a house, most just bought one in which they lived out
their years and on which their children later litigated.
However, starting around the year 2000, the combination of
dropping interest rates, tax breaks and rapidly increasing disposable incomes
reached a tipping point. This led to the rise of the EMI investor, the small,
leveraged second (and third, and maybe fourth) homebuyer, something that India
hadn't seen before. People took loans to buy houses and sold them two or three
years down the line because prices had risen enough to prepay the loan and
still make an enormous profit. However, the real estate industry rapidly rigged
this phenomena and turned it into a bubble which eventually burst. While that's
a long story and this is not the place for it, today there are a number of
people stuck with unbuilt houses with unpayable EMIs.
None of this is a secret. The only problem is that real estate cheerleaders--builders,
dealers, and the media which is beholden to real estate advertising
revenues--are fully dedicated to convincing you that none of this is happening
or if it is, then a huge revival is just around the corner. However, you still
must try to buy one house. Despite all of the above, real estate is the only
purchase for which it's fine to take a loan. The saving on rent, the tax break,
and the psychological comfort are worth it.
However, you have to ignore the hype and stick to these principles:
One. Buy just one house which will actually save you rent. Do not even think of
buying any more for investment.
Two. And this is the most important rule.Don't stretch yourself.
No matter how much you'd love a fancy house and how beautiful the ads and the
brochures are, the EMI should not be more than one third of your family income.
That's the UPPER limit. If you can get by at a lower level, then please do so.
Basically, don't buy a house of your dreams. I know that the whole thrust of
real estate marketing is this `house of your dreams' concept, but that's a
really bad way to make a sensible choice.
Three. I hardly need to point out that there's a huge difference
between a house and a promise of a house. Completion of projects is at a
premium today. This is unfortunate, but is a side-effect of the way real estate
developers have gotten away with fraudulent behaviour. Buy something you can
live in, rather than a mere plan and a promise. Look at it another way. Real
estate investments must be evaluated in the normal terms of any
investment--liquidity, safety, transparency, returns and similar parameters.
Most people get confused about this because there is a fundamental difference
between your first house which you live in and property bought purely for
investment. The first house is a need and when you take into account the fact
you can stop paying rent and get a tax break on the EMIs, you'll get a big
financial advantage. A first house may or may not turn out to be an
investment--it doesn't matter.
The myth of real estate being a great investment is mostly due
to mathematical illiteracy about compound growth. Any real estate fan will tell
you how some land or house became 50 or 100 times its value in 4050 years.
Sounds fabulous, but you know, the BSE Sensex has become 300 times its value in
38 years. That's `10 lakh becoming `30 crore. Even 100 times in 50 years--which
is a real estate example someone from Mumbai gave me-is a 9.6% per annum gain.
That's a good return, but not an outstanding one. It's a lot less than stocks.
After that, there is basically no case for real estate as an
investment. The ticket size is huge, liquidity is poor. The entire investment
has to be sold at one go. You may or may not be able to sell when you want
to--in a slump, entire markets disappear for long periods. Pricing may be hard
to discover. Information is anecdotal and hard to verify. The choice is clear.
ETM 24APR17
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