What Will Work Look Like in 2030?
Imagining four radically different scenarios for
how manage their work and careers. companies will manage people and how people
will
Imagine
a world in which the human resources function as we know it vanishes and is
replaced by automation, outsourcing, and self-organizing teams. Or a world in
which top talent is fought over so fiercely that the most adept tech workers
hire agents to negotiate and manage their careers.
It may
sound like science fiction. But the world of work is changing so fast that
either scenario could become reality. Megatrends such as digitization, the rise
of automation, and shifting demographics are disrupting the way we work, and
the way companies relate to workers. The dizzying pace of change makes it
difficult to plan for — or even think about — the long-term. And with so many
complex forces at play, making linear predictions based on recent trends is too
simplistic.
We at PwC have spent some time envisioning four alternative future worlds of work, each named
with a color. These admittedly extreme examples of how work could look in 2030
are shaped by the ways people and organizations respond to the forces of
collectivism and individualism, on one axis, and integration and fragmentation
on the other.
These
scenarios can help organizations think through possibilities and how they will
prepare to meet them. One prospect is that the world could move away from big
company capitalism as technology enables small businesses and niche marketers
to become more powerful. Or collectivism could take priority, as societies and
companies work together through a sense of shared responsibility. Will “me
first” prevail, or will societies come together for the greater good? Will
digital technology mark the end for large companies, or will it enable large
companies to slash their internal and external costs and become more powerful?
Of
course, it’s likely that the future will be one in which elements of all four
of these worlds — Red, Blue, Green, and Yellow — are influential. But the logic
behind each world holds significant implications for those in charge of hiring
and developing workers, and for those working in these worlds.
The Red World
In the
Red World, in which individualism and fragmentation reign, small is powerful.
Technology allows tiny businesses to tap into the vast reservoirs of
information, skills, and financing that were formerly available only to large
organizations, and it gives them power and incredible reach. Innovation and
people are inseparable, which will trickle down to how companies find, manage
and reward workers.
People strategy.
HR no longer exists as a separate function, and entrepreneurial
leaders rely on outsourced services and automation for people processes.
Full-time “permanent” employment is only around 10 percent of the workforce.
Automation and digital platforms become the norm to find talent and to match
workers with employers, and skills with demand — like a superpowerful LinkedIn.
Imagine apps and tools that alert you when your organization needs new skills
or capacity, based on the conversations happening within your business.
Workers.
Amid ferocious competition for talent, those with in-demand skills
command the highest rewards (far more so than they do today). Rather than
centering exclusively on compensation, contract negotiations involve factors
such as the ownership of intellectual property and the freedom to work. Workers
are left to themselves — to sink or swim, and to identify their own skill gaps
and build their expertise. Performance is judged mainly on short-term results —
this is not a world for the slow and steady, but for the rock stars who can
deliver results, and fast.
The Blue World
In the
Blue World, an individualized and integrated world, global corporations take
center stage, becoming larger, more powerful, and more influential than ever —
some even have more sway than nation states. Companies see their size and
influence as the best way to protect their prized profit margins against
intense competition from their peers and aggressive new market entrants.
People strategy.
The science of human capital has advanced significantly to the
point where the chief people officer, sometimes known as the head of people and
productivity, has a sophisticated understanding of the connection between
technology and performance. Top talent is fiercely fought over. Like the sports
stars of today, the best performers of tomorrow need to engage an agent to
negotiate and manage their career. HR uses advanced metrics to predict future
talent demands and to measure and anticipate performance and retention issues,
and deploy sensors and data analytics to continuously measure and optimize
performance.
Workers.
Companies prize a small group of “super-workers,” who maximize
their productivity with physical and medical enhancement techniques and
equipment. Imagine employers who provide cognition-enhancing medication to
their employees — and workers who gladly take it in order to gain an edge. As
most people struggle for temporary work, a corporate career separates the
“haves” from the “have-nots.” Companies provide many of the services, from
children’s education, eldercare and health care, that previously came from the
state or other sources. Those without a corporate career find it much more
difficult to obtain those services. Workers consent to have their data, health,
and performance monitored obsessively, often in real time. Those who thrive
under the relentless pressure to perform will reap excellent rewards, as will
in-demand contract workers with specialized skills.
The Green World
The
Green World — collective and integrated — is driven by the need for a powerful
social conscience. Reacting to public opinion, increasingly scarce natural
resources, and stringent international regulations, companies push a strong
ethical and ecological agenda. Social conscience, environmental responsibility,
diversity, human rights and fairness are corporate imperatives.
People strategy.
The CEO drives the people strategy for the organization, because
the people in the organization, their behaviors, and their role in society have
a direct link to the organization’s success or failure. HR — renamed “People
and Society” — takes on a new role as guardian of the brand, and assumes
marketing, corporate social responsibility, and data analytics functions.
Success depends on creating the right culture and behaviors and on guarding
against sustainability and reputational risk throughout the supply chain. Many
people decisions, from diversity ratios to the number of layoffs companies can
make during a downturn, are tightly controlled by regulation. Compensation
strategies revolve on total rewards, which recognizes corporate citizenship and
good behaviors along with performance.
Workers.
Employees, no less than corporations, are held to high ethical
standards. Workers understand that their conduct and ethics are taken seriously
and that performance is assessed against a wide range of measures, including
how efficiently workers manage their travel and resources. Employees enjoy
family-friendly, flexible hours and are encouraged to take part in socially
useful projects. They trust their employers to treat them fairly in terms of
pay, development, and conditions, and in return, are expected to reflect the
culture of the company in their approach and behavior.
The Yellow World
In the
Yellow World — in which collectivist impulses thrive in a fragmented world —
workers and companies seek out greater meaning and relevance. Humanness is
highly valued. Workers find flexibility, autonomy, and fulfilment, working for
organizations with strong social and ethical records. There’s a strong desire
to contribute to the common good.
People strategy.
The traditional core functions of HR are held by business leaders,
the collective, or taken on by new worker guilds. The concept of fair pay predominates. Organizations and workers
respect one another’s needs and capabilities. Conflicts between technology
and automation, on the one hand, and humanness and individuality, on the other,
will usually be resolved in favor of the latter. Because customers are likely
to resist automation, companies will offer human driver options on self-driving
taxis or put stamps on products to indicate they were made by people rather
than by machines.
Workers.
Workers feel the strongest loyalty not to their employer, but to
other people with the same skills or cause. This is the perfect breeding ground
for the emergence of new worker guilds — far more powerful than today’s unions
— that develop in order to protect, support, and connect independent workers,
and often provide training and other benefits that have traditionally been
supplied by employers. Guilds assume responsibility for members’ well-being,
pensions, training, and even their university educations.
We’re
aware that some of these developments may seem unlikely or even whimsical. But
there’s a lot we don’t know about the future. And right now, that uncertainty
is raising a lot of questions and anxiety. Imagining these four worlds offers
one way to stop wondering and speculating and start planning. From each world,
work backward by thinking about what your workers and HR function will need.
How might the characteristics of each world come together to create a scenario
that is uniquely yours? In each scenario, how will your talent needs change?
How can you attract, keep, and motivate the people you need? How will your
organization need to evolve to stay competitive?
The
answers may not seem obvious today. We may not know all the answers. But by
imagining different scenarios and taking steps to plan now, we can face the
future of work with a greater sense of confidence.
by Jeff Hesse and Scott Olsen
https://www.strategy-business.com/article/What-Will-Work-Look-Like-in-2030?gko=e1d49&utm_source=itw&utm_medium=20180131&utm_campaign=resp
No comments:
Post a Comment