WORKPLACE SPECIAL In Advanced and Emerging
Economies Alike, Worries About Job Automation
Many fear robots, computers
will eliminate jobs, increase inequality
Across the globe, new technologies are transforming the nature of
work. Advances in robotics and artificial intelligence are displacing jobs in
manufacturing and, increasingly, in the service sector. And while automation
may boost productivity and overall economic growth, there is a recognition that
it will also disrupt the workplace, with repercussions for workers, employers,
education systems and governments.
Average citizens see a revolution coming in the workplace, and
they are concerned. As a new Pew Research Center study of public opinion in 10
countries highlights, there is a widely shared view that the nature of work
will likely be transformed over the next half-century, though not everyone is
equally convinced.
In some countries and economic sectors, of course, the
transformation of the workplace has already begun. In South Korea, there are
more than 600 installed industrial robots for every 10,000 workers in
manufacturing facilities. In Japan there are more than 300 and in the United
States nearly 200. Profit maximization, and the relatively high cost of human
labor, helps drive automation. The average hourly cost of a manufacturing
worker is $49 in Germany and $36 in the U.S. The hourly cost of a robot is $4.
How far will the use of computers and artificial intelligence spread? The
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates
that 14% of jobs in advanced economies could
become susceptible to automation and another 32% substantially changed,
affecting the lives of millions of workers.
In all 10 advanced and emerging economies polled, large majorities
say that in the next 50 years robots and computers will probably or definitely
do much of the work currently done by humans. In three countries – Greece,
South Africa and Argentina – four-in-ten or more believe this will definitely happen.
And most believe that increasing automation will have negative
consequences for jobs. Large majorities in each nation surveyed think ordinary
people will have a hard time finding jobs as a result of automation. Relatively
few predict new, better-paying jobs will be created by technological advances.
Publics believe the responsibility for dealing with these challenges
should be widely shared across key institutions and actors in society. Most
tend to say that governments, schools, individuals themselves and, to a
somewhat lesser extent, employers all have a lot of responsibility for ensuring
that workers have the right skills and education to be successful in the future
economy.
These are among the key findings of a Pew Research Center survey
conducted in nine countries from May 21 to August 10, 2018, among 9,670
respondents. It also includes analysis from previous Pew Research Center surveys conducted in the United States in 2015, 2016 and 2017.
The belief that in the next 50 years robots and computers will
definitely or probably do much of the work currently done by humans is
widespread in the nations surveyed. This view is especially common in Greece,
the only nation where more than half of those polled believe this will
definitely happen, although many in South Africa (45%) and Argentina (40%) also
share this opinion. Americans are somewhat less likely than others to think
that robots will replace human jobs in the next half-century.
There are not a lot of differences on this issue between major
demographic groups surveyed in each nation, though in some countries younger
people are particularly likely to think automation will displace human jobs. In
Canada, Hungary, South Africa and Brazil, people ages 18 to 29 are more likely
to believe automation will have a significant impact on jobs in the next
half-century. This view is also common among those with higher levels of
education in South Africa and Brazil.
Publics are generally more worried than hopeful about the prospect
that robots and computers may one day be able to do much of the work done by
humans today. Their greatest concern is that automation will make it harder for
ordinary people to find jobs. More than eight-in-ten adults in Greece,
Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Canada voice such worries, and more than
seven-in-ten in Hungary, Poland, Italy and Japan agree.
Worries about shrinking the job market are widely shared among
both men and women and across age groups. Japan and Brazil, however, stand out
as countries where those ages 18 to 29 are significantly more worried than
older generations about the impact of automation on employment.
Many in the nations surveyed also believe that the greater use of
robots and computers will worsen inequality between the rich and the poor. More
than eight-in-ten in Greece, Argentina, Japan and Brazil express this view, as
do more than seven-in-ten in Canada, South Africa, the U.S. and Hungary.
Worsening inequality due to technological advances is a particular concern
among the more highly educated in countries such as Japan, South Africa and
Brazil.
Along with concern about negative consequences, there is
widespread skepticism about the potential economic benefits of automation. Only
in Japan, Poland and Hungary does half or more of the public believe that
automation will enable their economy to become more efficient. Older Canadians
– those ages 50 and older – are particularly dubious of the purported
efficiency gains from using more robots and computers. Women are especially
skeptical in Canada, Japan, Argentina and Brazil, as are people with less than
a college education in Greece, Italy and Japan.
And less than half the publics surveyed believe that robots and
computers doing much of the work currently done by humans would lead to new,
better-paying jobs. In fact, only about a quarter of Americans and Italians and
roughly a third of Japanese and Hungarians hold this view. Women are less
hopeful than men in Canada, Japan and Brazil. And in Canada, Greece and Japan,
those without a college education are less likely than the college-educated to
say that automation will lead to new, better-paying jobs.
In most nations, pessimism about the likelihood of high-quality
new jobs is linked to views about the current state of the economy. For
instance, 42% of Argentines who say their current national economy is in good
shape believe automation will lead to new, better-paying jobs; among those who
rate the current economy poorly, just 26% express this opinion.
Publics place responsibility for dealing with the evolving nature
of work on a variety of institutions and actors. Government looms large in the
minds of many. Nearly eight-in-ten Argentines say government has a lot of
responsibility for ensuring that the nation’s workforce has the right skills
and education to succeed in the future, and more than seven-in-ten hold this
view in South Africa, Brazil, Greece and Italy. Only in the U.S. do fewer than
half believe the government has a lot of responsibility for preparing the
nation’s workforce.
Government investment to help workers adapt to the new
technological age varies greatly from country to country. Denmark, for
instance, spends 3.22% of its gross domestic product on active and passive
labor market policies, according to the OECD. Germany
spends 1.45% and the United States 0.27%.
Schools, according to most, also have a major role to play in
preparing workers for the future. Majorities in every country surveyed except
Japan believe the educational system has a lot of responsibility for ensuring
that the workforce has the proper skills and education for the jobs of the
future. This perspective is especially common in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil.
Most also see a role for individuals. This is particularly true in
the U.S, Argentina and Brazil, where more than seven-in-ten say individuals
themselves have a lot of responsibility for making sure they are prepared for
the future economy. Again, Japan – where just 39% express this opinion – is an
outlier.
Employers are seen as having somewhat less responsibility for
making sure the workforce has the education and skills necessary for success.
Still, roughly half or more believe employers have a lot of responsibility in
Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Hungary, Italy, the U.S., Canada and Greece.
BY RICHARD WIKE AND BRUCE STOKES
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/five-fifty-fear-fear-not?cid=fivefifty-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1810&hlkid=4d72a26d356549fa9dd9bf41dba50e60&hctky=1627601&hdpid=ea273081-cf8b-455f-991d-c00fb26eb95b
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