SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY SPECIAL ...........Looking @ 2013 & Beyond

Looking   @    2013   &  Beyond     We usually greet the New Year with hope. So it is a good time to look at what the future will bring in science and technology, and examine whether they can solve some of our most intractable problems. So instead of the customary year-end lists, replete with anticipated product launches for the year, we produce one that looks at broader technology shifts over longer periods. Where will computing be in ten years? How will we manage chronic diseases? Can we stop soil degradation? Or dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions? Although technology is not the only answer to many of these questions, a good technological solution will make change quicker and easier to adapt. There is plenty of news to cheer as we pick events next year that could expand into world-changing trends over the decade. There is an element of bias in this list, however. It looks at how technology can make a big difference to our lives, and make the world a healthier, happier and more sustainable place to live. 1 Core Computing Parts of Moore’s Law are collapsing, and chip-makers are working hard to keep it going. But new computing paradigms are going to debut next year, and some of them can transform computing by end of the decade. One of them is the memristsor, a circuit element whose resistance drops as current flows through it. HP and the South Korean firm Hynix are expected to launch next year the first memristor-based memory chip as a replacement of flash memory. The first graphene-based devices could also appear in 2013, probably as displays in smartphones. Optical inter-connects will speed up in-chip communication soon. One of these 3 tech may take over the core function of a chip: computing. 2 Harvesting Energy When the number of connected devices explodes, powering them could need substantial energy. It is one thing to put billions of sensors and quite another to find the energy to run them, even as we try to cut emissions. And there are devices in situations where batteries cannot be changed at all. The solution in the long run is to make them harvest energy from their environment and this method is poised to take off. A foundation was laid last week when the Zigbee Alliance, formed by energy management firms, incorporated the Green Power feature in its 2012 specifications. Energyharvesting devices are just waiting to be launched soon. 3 Genes for the Record Dramatic fall in gene sequencing costs is not enough. This is because it has raised expectations unrealistically and the costs to analyse and interpret this data have not fallen as rapidly. You could sequence a genome for $1000, but still need to pay 25 times this amount to interpret the data quickly. But this additional expense will also come down rapidly as big data analytics techniques improve. Within five years, Genome sequencing data will form part of everyone’s medical record, just the way blood groups are     now. It will then start to truly revolutionise medical treatment. On January 3, three days from now, the $10-million Archon Genomics X Prize will begin its gene sequencing competition with new, rigorous standards. The 100 individuals donating their genomes for the competition are over 100 years old. We will see why some people live longer. 4 Continuous Healthcare Hospitals have been built to take care of emergencies and acute illnesses. Chronic diseases require a different business model that provides continuous interaction between patients and doctors. Since no one expects a magic bullet for chronic diseases soon, this requirement will persist. Technology will provide a method of interacting with the doctor remotely on a continuous basis and this advance will turn the healthcare industry upside down. A series of product launches will hasten this change. Big hospitals are already part of this transformation, as they are preparing for an age where patients no longer need to come to the hospital. 5 Skyscraper Farms It is clear that we cannot continue to use soil like this to produce food. Fortunately, plants need it only to anchor themselves. The emerging concept of vertical farm, where crops are grown in tall towers, removes the need to use soil for agriculture and prevents degradation. Singapore, which imports a substantial part of its food, started its first vertical vegetable farm a few months ago; it can produce 450 kg of vegetables a day. The Manchester International Festival in 2013 is converting an old building into vertical farm. 6 Solar Turns the Corner If there is any industry that should celebrate this year, it is the solar energy industry. Financing innovations have helped the sector boom this year and it is now set for even bigger growth in 2013. Although solar energy has grown since 2000, total electricity demand has grown even more. However, 2013 is set to be a key year when a combination of new tech, financial incentives and falling prices will push it to a new level. Three-dimensional solar cells will debut next year. Over the next few years, solar thermal will combine with grid level storage to begin providing uninterrupted power through the night. Transparent solar cells will begin appearing in windows. Thinfilm solar cells will be widespread too. 7  Buildings without Carbon Emissions If global construction, which includes public infrastructure, goes the way it has, most of the global resources will be consumed soon. Fortunately, at least in building construction, major change is under way. After some delay, the US Green Building Council’s new LEED standards – called LEED v4 – in 2013 and implemented in probably three years. It will be a substantial advance – which explains the opposition – over the one approved in 2009. Its goal is to have zero-carbon buildings by 2030, a goal which seems achievable from present trends. 8 Moving Towards Zero Waste Our urban population is increasing. And so is the amount of waste each person produces, from 0.64 kg per person 10 years ago to 1.2 kg now, and is set to increase to 1.42 per kg per person by 2025. Among all the selections in this list, waste management is an area where progress seems to have been minimal. Pneumatic collection systems can now suck away waste underground at high speeds but they still reach landfills soon. There has been progress in sorting and recycling as it is now possible to sort trash automatically with reasonable accuracy. Zero waste still remains an idea and the International Zero Waste Week, to be celebrated in March, is probably a good beginning towards this fine concept. A magic technology breakthrough, however, is still a long time away ET121231