Smartphones face an uncertain future after world
domination
The next catalyst for smartphones could be the
possibilities offered by upcoming tech like 5G, VR, AI and new form factors
What is next for the smartphone, which has become the
hottest-selling consumer device around the world in just over a decade?
Even as top makers like Apple and Samsung unveil new
handsets with new features, smartphone sales have flattened with most major
markets largely saturated. The next catalyst for smartphones could be the
possibilities offered by the forthcoming 5G, or fifth generation wireless
networks, new form factors or advances in virtual and augmented reality.
But some analysts contend that something entirely
different may supplant the smartphone.
Future Today Institute founder Amy Webb said in her
annual report on technology trends that 2018 ‘marks the beginning of the end of
traditional smartphones’ and sees a transition to a new era of computing and
connected devices based on voice, gesture and touch.
“The transition from smartphones to smart wearables
and invisible interfaces — earbuds that have biometric sensors and speakers;
rings and bracelets that sense motion; smart glasses that record and display
information — will forever change how we experience the physical world,” Webb
writes.
Design changes to break the
mould
Other analysts say the smartphone is not disappearing
anytime soon, even if the market is pausing.
“The smartphone is not going away, but it might
change its shape and form factor,” says David McQueen, an analyst on connected
devices for ABI Research. McQueen says in a recent report that the mobile
industry is evolving to devices with more immersive touch-less experiences,
fuelled by artificial intelligence, mixed reality and gesture control. New
devices may also see improved biometrics such as face recognition, and changes
such as foldable screens.
ABI Research says that “Google and Amazon will lead
and drive innovation around smartphones and related ecosystems over the next
five to six years” because of their strength in these emerging technologies.
Global smartphone sales are expected to decline 0.7 per cent in 2018 to 1.455
billion units, according to research firm IDC. But IDC sees the overall
smartphone market to slowly pick up again and reach 1.646 billion units by
2022.
Evolving landscape of tech
platforms
Bob O’Donnell, the founder of Technalysis Research,
says smartphone sales have slowed in the US and some other developed markets as
a result of the end of carrier subsidies. “Because people are paying full price
for their phones, they are holding on to them longer,” O’Donnell says. The
market may get a boost in 2019 from 5G, AI and a likely appearance of the first
devices with foldable or bendable displays, according to O’Donnell.
The analyst says the competition among tech firms is
now centring around the smart digital assistants like Amazon Alexa, Google
Assistant, Apple’s Siri and others. This is becoming a ‘battle of power over
platforms that could influence the smartphone market’, according to O’Donnell,
who noted that some things may change if the dominant player becomes Amazon,
which makes a range of devices but not smartphones.
However, it remains unclear what kind of device
consumers will want, but that “at the end of the day is going to look a lot
like a smartphone”.
— AFP
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